Information war rages as bullets, bombs fly
Battle for hearts and minds fully engaged by both sides in Ukraine conflict
As the bombs and bullets continue to rain down on Ukraine, a different battle to control the narrative is being waged on the battlefield – and far beyond it.
The war of words is just as significant as the exchange of lethal munitions.
Whoever controls the narrative – and it is often by no means clear who does – has the high ground in the battle for hearts and minds.
The importance of this cannot be overstated. That is why so much effort and resources have been devoted to it. Both the combatants and their supporters near and far are fully engaged.
It could be decisive in determining the eventual outcome. The history of these times will be weighed as much by the military victories as the stories that are told about them for generations to come.
It remains an open question who’s version will triumph. But the evidence is mounting that reality is gaining the upper hand.
The battle to control the information space was brought into sharp focus on by the Associated Press in US, Ukraine quietly try to pierce Putin’s propaganda bubble.
“The U.S. and Ukraine have knocked back Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to falsely frame the narrative of his brutal war, but they are struggling to get a more accurate view of the Kremlin’s invasion in front of the Russian people,” AP reported.
Putin has effectively blocked any news other than his preferred narrative from reaching the Russian people through draconian censorship, closing independent media and blocking access to major social media platforms that have a global reach.
“The result is a Russian public with little to no access to any alternative to Putin’s own anti-Ukraine, anti-Western narrative. It’s a heat shield for Putin against any backlash to the war and Western sanctions that have crippled Russia’s economy.”
Trying to pierce this “propaganda bubble” has become an important – if not essential – goal of both Ukraine and its allies throughout the West.
Multiple approaches are being tried at the same time. Independent media still broadcasting into Russia are being widely supported, Ukraine’s president is speaking – in Russian – almost daily directly to those who can still hear him behind Putin’s “iron curtain” and others are advising Russians how to circumvent the censorship.
Social media is being flooded with stories and images that are seen by millions.
The problem is – and will remain – that it is difficult if not impossible to tell whether any of this is working at all. Part of this is reaching those who don’t want to be reached – many Russians remain convinced the propaganda they are hearing is true.
“It’s a misinformation environment that the Kremlin relishes, and has helped promote with influence operations against Russia’s adversaries,” AP reports.
Avoiding the propaganda “bubble” for those looking for reliable information takes considerable effort and savvy – knowing where to look.
One of the newest and most reliable sources of useful information on the war in Ukraine is the English-language Kyiv Independent news outlet.
This publication has been in existence barely four months, but in that short period has established a reputation for fearless and accurate reporting about the rapidly unfolding events in Ukraine.
As it explains on its web site, “The Kyiv Independent is Ukraine’s English-language media outlet, created by journalists who were fired from the Kyiv Post for defending editorial independence.”
The former Kyiv Post, for 26 years Ukraine’s English-language global voice, went silent on Nov. 8, 2021.
The publication was shut down by the owner who wanted to take full control of the newsroom which had previously followed the principle of editorial independence.
Three days later, more than 30 former Kyiv Post employees decided to continue the publication’s legacy by launching a new publication – the Kyiv Independent.
Olga Rudenko, former deputy chief editor at the Kyiv Post, was chosen to lead the new publication as editor-in-chief. Rudenko recently talked about her publication and the challenges it faces on the CNN show Reliable Sources.
Introducing her, chief Media Correspondent Brain Stelter noted that the Kyiv Independent is “a fairly new publication but has earned acclaim for its war coverage.
“It's gone from being a three-month-old startup and a relative unknown in the Western world to now one of the leading sources of information on the war in Ukraine,” Stelter said.
Rudenko talked mostly about how dangerous it has become for her reporters to cover the war in the face of determined efforts to prevent it.
She said no one on her team has been directly targeted yet, but reporting on the conflict is a "daily risk.”
"We have to remember that this is an invasion by an authoritarian regime that has been targeting journalists and media consistently for decades now," Rudenko said.
She added that her staff is learning as they go about how to protect themselves. Even though some have experience covering conflict, they are now war correspondents in the midst of a raging battle.
One of the outlet's biggest fears is that Russia may cut off internet connections, hindering their ability to publish news. In fact, it has been quite a surprise this has not already happened.
One of the steps the staff takes to protect themselves is to disperse geographically. “We do not concentrate” in one place, Rudenko said. "We are in different locations.”
They take safety seriously, she added. “We are also telling reporters that safety is a priority," Rudenko said. "No story is worth a human life."
An outstanding example of the work being done at the Kyiv Independent can be found in Illia Ponomarenko’s March 26 article Ukraine reaches breaking point in Russia’s war in which the defense and security reporter summarizes the situation at the end of a month of intense fighting.
“After a month of hostilities, tangible results indicate that Ukraine has sustained the war’s first major blow. It defeated the Kremlin’s initial, most dangerous plan of a quick, shock-and-awe invasion,” Ponomarenko notes.
He points out what has become increasingly apparent over the past few days, especially the announcement by Russian military officials on Friday that they were changing the focus of their battle plans.
“Now, the war is entering a new phase — a grueling longer-term war of attrition, and a new, difficult test for the Ukrainian military and the nation,” the article says.
Then, Ponomarenko adds an insight that comes from being on the ground and experiencing the assault on a daily basis.
“[T]hanks to important early victories, as well as broad international support, this new phase opens a wide window of opportunity for inflicting a full-fledged military defeat upon Russia.”
The detailed account of events and analysis that follow certainly supports its primary conclusion.
Of particular note is this observation: “International monitors do not indicate Russia successfully making major improvements in its logistics or reorganizing its forces that have demonstrated unexpectedly low performance so far.”
It is on this basis – and a large amount of other supporting data – that the article reaches this conclusion:
“In general, the new phase of war sees Russia forced into halting its exhausted advancements and Ukraine saving and expanding its full combat potential.” (emphasis added)
The key factor now is Ukraine’s ability to keep exhausting the Russian military for as long as possible. It’s a huge task.
An insightful approach helpful to understanding the information war was explored in detail recently by Brian Klaas in The Atlantic magazine article Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap.
Klass is a global-politics professor at University College London, and his thesis is logical and based on common sense: Surrounded by sycophants and convinced of their own infallibility, dictators like Putin lack reliable intelligence to make sound decisions and this sows the seeds of their own destruction.
“In the span of a couple of weeks, Vladimir Putin – a man recently described by Donald Trump as a strategic “genius” – managed to revitalize NATO, unify a splintered West, turn Ukraine’s little-known president into a global hero, wreck Russia’s economy, and solidify his legacy as a murderous war criminal.
“How did he miscalculate so badly?”
Klass calls it the “dictator trap.” The strategies dictators use to stay in power tend to trigger their eventual downfall. Rather than being long-term planners, many make catastrophic short-term errors – the kinds of errors that would likely have been avoided in democratic systems.
“They hear only from sycophants, and get bad advice. They misunderstand their population. They don’t see threats coming until it’s too late.”
As a result, for dictators who miscalculate, the consequences are often fatal: when they are cornered, they get even more reckless. Ultimately, they are taken out of the picture.
This thesis makes a great deal of sense. There is plenty of evidence for it, and Putin has committed all the errors Klaas lists, starting four years ago when he first arranged to remain in power potentially through 2036 – when he will 83 years old, if he lives that long.
Among the most significant errors Putin has made with increasing brutality since the invasion of Ukraine has been to silence opposing views by stifling freedom of expression.
“Crushing dissent and jailing opponents is often rational, from the perspective of a dictator. It creates a culture of fear that is useful for establishing and maintaining control. But that culture of fear comes with a cost,” Klaas notes.
The cost is that the dictator does not get to hear two things of great importance (even though he may not acknowledge how important they are): what his subjects are really thinking about him – public opinion – and the views of experts who may have better ideas about how to win the battle.
“If you live in a fake world long enough, it can start to feel real. Dictators and despots begin to believe their own lies, repeated back at them and propagated by state-controlled media.”
This is what ends up being, truly, fatal.
A massive miscalculation
As the information war swirls around the military battle unfolding in Ukraine, the massive miscalculation by Putin and his coterie is becoming more obvious by the day.
They didn’t expect the effective resistance they encountered from Ukrainian troops; they expected NATO to be divided; they misjudged the impact of economic sanctions. The list of errors is long and growing.
The single most credible explanation for these mistakes is that the Kremlin started to believe its own propaganda. Officials’ lack of knowledge about the reality of their situation, and what they would encounter once hostilities began is the most plausible of all explanations for their series of unforced errors.
It is a vivid demonstration of how crucial it is to win the information war. In war – as in life – knowledge is power. Lack of it can be lethal.
YES! Putin "extended" his presidency for himself, and that in itself should have been a BIG warning on what might happen!
Anyone who believes their own propaganda DESERVES the consequences ... even if they're fatal.